{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-09-14T00:00:00Z",
  "title": "Action-conditioned poker range update: synthetic 27-combo river fixture",
  "model": {
    "game": "Heads-up standard 52-card Texas Hold’em",
    "board": [
      "Kd",
      "9c",
      "7h",
      "4c",
      "2s"
    ],
    "observedAction": "Villain bets 100 into a 100-chip pot on the completed river",
    "updateRule": "posterior hand mass is proportional to reach weight × hand-specific action frequency × card compatibility",
    "assumptions": [
      "The 27 listed combinations and frequencies are synthetic teaching inputs, not solver output, population estimates, or recommended strategy.",
      "Every listed hand has pre-action reach weight 1; all unlisted hands have weight 0.",
      "The board is complete. Hero’s unpaired AQ makes ace-high (A-K-Q-9-7), beats every listed missed-club draw, and loses to every listed made hand; ties are absent.",
      "No rake, future action, folds, multiway correlation, payout adjustment, or real-money result is modeled.",
      "A single observed bet updates a declared model; by itself, it cannot reliably estimate an opponent’s action frequencies from one hand."
    ]
  },
  "results": [
    {
      "id": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "labelEn": "A♥Q♥: no club-draw blockers",
      "labelJa": "A♥Q♥：クラブドローをブロックしない",
      "board": "Kd 9c 7h 4c 2s",
      "legalComboCount": 27,
      "excludedCombos": [],
      "priorMass": 27,
      "madePriorMass": 15,
      "missedPriorMass": 12,
      "priorBluffShare": 0.444444444444,
      "actionMass": 18,
      "madeActionMass": 13.2,
      "missedActionMass": 4.8,
      "overallActionFrequency": 0.666666666667,
      "posteriorBluffShare": 0.266666666667,
      "equalCountBluffShare": 0.444444444444,
      "breakEvenBluffShare": 0.333333333333,
      "correctCallEv": -20,
      "naiveCallEv": 33.333333333333
    },
    {
      "id": "club_blockers",
      "hero": "AcQc",
      "labelEn": "A♣Q♣: four club-draw combos blocked",
      "labelJa": "A♣Q♣：クラブドロー4コンボをブロック",
      "board": "Kd 9c 7h 4c 2s",
      "legalComboCount": 23,
      "excludedCombos": [
        "AcJc",
        "AcTc",
        "QcJc",
        "QcTc"
      ],
      "priorMass": 23,
      "madePriorMass": 15,
      "missedPriorMass": 8,
      "priorBluffShare": 0.347826086957,
      "actionMass": 15.4,
      "madeActionMass": 13.2,
      "missedActionMass": 2.2,
      "overallActionFrequency": 0.669565217391,
      "posteriorBluffShare": 0.142857142857,
      "equalCountBluffShare": 0.347826086957,
      "breakEvenBluffShare": 0.333333333333,
      "correctCallEv": -57.142857142857,
      "naiveCallEv": 4.347826086957
    }
  ],
  "rows": [
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "9s9h",
      "group": "set_99",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "9s9d",
      "group": "set_99",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "9h9d",
      "group": "set_99",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "7s7c",
      "group": "set_77",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "7s7d",
      "group": "set_77",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "7c7d",
      "group": "set_77",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.055555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Ks9s",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Ks9h",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Ks9d",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kh9s",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kh9h",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kh9d",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kc9s",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kc9h",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Kc9d",
      "group": "two_pair_K9",
      "category": "made_hand",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "AcJc",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.8,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.8,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.044444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "AcTc",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.7,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.7,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.038888888889
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "QcJc",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.6,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.6,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.033333333333
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "QcTc",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.5,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.5,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.027777777778
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "JcTc",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.45,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.45,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.025
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Jc8c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.4,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.4,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.022222222222
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Tc8c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.35,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.35,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.019444444444
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "8c6c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.3,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.3,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.016666666667
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "6c5c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.25,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.25,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.013888888889
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "5c3c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.2,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.2,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.011111111111
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Jc6c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.15,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.15,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.008333333333
    },
    {
      "caseId": "unblocked",
      "hero": "AhQh",
      "hand": "Tc6c",
      "group": "missed_clubs",
      "category": "missed_clubs",
      "actionFrequency": 0.1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 0.1,
      "priorShare": 0.037037037037,
      "posteriorShare": 0.005555555556
    },
    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
      "hero": "AcQc",
      "hand": "9s9h",
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      "actionFrequency": 1,
      "reachWeight": 1,
      "compatible": true,
      "exclusionReason": "",
      "actionMass": 1,
      "priorShare": 0.04347826087,
      "posteriorShare": 0.064935064935
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
      "hero": "AcQc",
      "hand": "9s9d",
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    {
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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      "exclusionReason": "",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
      "hero": "AcQc",
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      "group": "missed_clubs",
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      "compatible": false,
      "exclusionReason": "shares a card with Hero",
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    },
    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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      "compatible": false,
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    {
      "caseId": "club_blockers",
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    {
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    {
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    {
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